It doesn't rank as high on the totem pole as shoring up the No. 1 goalie spot or landing a top-four, left-handed defenseman, but the Penguins will also need to identify a capable third-line center this offseason.
It'll likely take a handful of injuries to see Jeff Carter slotted up the middle on the third line at any point going forward, and although Ryan Poehling finished this past regular season playing in that spot, his ideal deployment would be on the fourth line with a good bit of action on the penalty-kill.
Beyond those two, the Penguins don't really have any in-house candidates to fill the role. Mikael Granlund's short-lived stint as the third-line center suggests Mike Sullivan wasn't particularly fond of his play there after being acquired from the Predators. Buying him out this summer (which seems like a legitimate possibility) would clear over $4 million in cap space next season. There's no guarantee he'll even be on the roster in October.
Drew O'Connor would be able to get by as a short-term option at third-line center, if necessary, but Sullivan prefers his play on the wing. He's not the solution.
Luckily for the Penguins, there are a few pending unrestricted free agents who could fortify their center depth behind Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin. One of them is Jordan Staal.
Staal, turning 35 prior to the start of next season, has spent the past 11 years with the Hurricanes -- several as their captain -- after he was traded away from the Penguins for Brian Dumoulin, Brandon Sutter and the eighth-overall pick in the 2012 draft (Derrick Pouliot). Staal scored 29 goals as a rookie with the Penguins, and then scored 25 times in 62 games his final season with the team. Interestingly, he never topped either total with the Hurricanes, maxing out at 20 goals in 2015-16.
Despite never quite recapturing his early-career offensive flair, he did continue forth as one of the best defensive centers in the NHL. As of right now, that's still the case. I even had him on my Selke ballot this year, and that's why he'd at least be worth a look from the Penguins ... if they'll even have the chance to get to him.
Before getting further, I must point out that Staal explicitly stated his intention not only to re-sign with the Hurricanes, but to finish his career there.
"I don’t plan on going anywhere," Staal said after the Hurricanes were ousted from the Stanley Cup playoffs. "I’ve obviously been here long enough and there’s no reason to leave."
He then added, "I’m sure we’ll find a way to get a deal done now that we’re finished here and we’ll hopefully check off some unfinished business here. ... We have a great group of guys and a great team and it just has been a pleasure to be a leader here and be part of these guys. So I’m planning on staying, for sure."
Certainly doesn't sound like someone who's going anywhere. Nevertheless, it wouldn't be the first time a player switched sides shortly after showing undying loyalty. However small it may be, there is a possibility Staal will make it to free agency. Plus, it's the offseason. We've got nothing but time to talk about unlikely hypotheticals.
I promise to keep it brief, but let's take a look at what Staal would bring to the table. Starting things off is a snapshot of his past three seasons, courtesy of JFresh Hockey. As always, I encourage you to focus your attention on the individual components instead of the large WAR (wins above replacement) percentile up top. You can read a full explainer on how to understand the cards here.
JFRESH HOCKEY
Even though he had such a poor season defensively in 2020-21, he was so good in his own end over the next two seasons that his three-year weighted average defensive impact still ranks in the 98th percentile of NHL forwards. This past season, specifically, only a handful of forwards had a better impact toward their team's ability to limit quality chances against.
Rod Brind'Amour's system had a ton to do with it, but the Hurricanes were the NHL's best defensive team during the regular season and Staal still managed to stand out amongst his teammates in that regard. With him on the ice during full-strength action, the Hurricanes allowed just 39.6 shot attempts against per hour (best among regular forwards) and 2.09 expected goals against per hour (best among top-nine forwards).
Here's a visual representation of what opponents were able to create against the Hurricanes during Staal's 5-on-5 ice-time, courtesy of HockeyViz:
HockeyViz
The darker the red, the more shot attempts were taken in that area, relative to league average. The darker the blue, the fewer attempts taken in that area, relative to league average.
That sea of blue? Yeah, that's where offensive generation went to die.
It's been some time since the Penguins have had a third-line center with defensive impacts anything close to what Staal just turned in. For as much trouble as they had clamping down when it mattered most, it's hard not to think about the Penguins deploying him in those high-leverage defensive situations.
I really should've said high-leverage defensive situations at 5-on-5, because his penalty-kill work hasn't been anywhere close to as stellar lately. As you can see on the card above, his penalty-kill impact ranks in just the 35th percentile over the last three seasons. In 2022-23, the Hurricanes were exceptional on the penalty-kill when Staal wasn't on the ice and performed considerably worse when he was. Among regular forwards on their penalty-kill, he was out there for the highest rate of goals against, expected goals against and shot attempts against.
Shifting focus to his offensive contributions, he's good for something like this every blue moon ...
... but typically, his goals are a result of tips or deflections, or of pucks hopping to him in soft spots between the dots that he then sweeps on target.
His raw goal totals don't pop out, but a full-strength scoring rate of 0.86 goals per hour, which is what he posted this past season, is more than acceptable for his role. Then again, it was the highest rate of his entire time with the Hurricanes and is likely set to regress. That's important to keep in mind because he's not much of a playmaker and wasn't credited for driving many quality looks. His ability to do so graded out in the 69th percentile a few seasons ago, but just the 26th percentile in 2022-23.
OK, I promised to keep this brief. In the end, I think Staal would be a decent -- if unspectacular, overall -- third-line center for the Penguins. His lack of effectiveness on the penalty-kill does make his full-strength defense a bit less appealing and his individual offense is somewhat dependent on factors outside of his control, so interest wouldn't come without some hesitation, either.
Of course, there's the age thing, too. With such a tiny competitive window remaining, it's probably not the best idea in the world for the Penguins to hedge their bets on more players who are well past their prime, even if they are still effective in their own niche ways.
Staal wants to re-sign with the Hurricanes. The Hurricanes presumably want him back. It'll probably happen. It's still fun to explore the possibilities, right?
Leading up to the start of free agency, I will be profiling select pending unrestricted free agents and taking a look at whether or not they might be a strong fit with the Penguins. Drop a comment and tell me who you'd like to see profiled next.
PREVIOUS UFA PROFILES
• Pierre Engvall (Forward)
• Tyler Bertuzzi (Forward)
• Vladislav Gavrikov (Defenseman)
